POLSAM | POLİTİK STRATEJİLER ARAŞTIRMA MERKEZİ
Historically, due to Yemen’s strategic geographic location, it has attracted substantial attention from regional countries. Undoubtedly, what the country is witnessing represents a vivid example of a severe proxy war. The political atmosphere itself is closely linked to the power of various interests.
In the frame of recent developments, Saudi Arabia, which leads the Arab Coalition, has provided particular interest in supporting the Presidential Leadership Council (PLC), the internationally recognized governing body of Yemen, against the Southern Transitional Council (STC). It is worth mentioning that the separatist Southern Transitional Council (STC), which is backed by the United Arab Emirates, has already lost control over the governorates of Hadramut and al-Mahra.[1] Additionally, on the one hand, the retake of the port of Mukalla by Yemeni government forces illustrates a pivotal step in reinforcing Riyadh’s interests in the region. On the other hand, by expanding the PLC’s forces, Saudi Arabia aims to safeguard its own security policy. From a geopolitical standpoint, this development may be considered a new turning point for Riyadh to reassert itself as a leading regional power.
Two geopolitical matters arise from this current Yemeni crisis:
First, it remains unclear why the STC sought to seize territory at this particular time. Second, it is also uncertain what lay behind the expectations or motivations of the United Arab Emirates in this issue.
The main point that can be derived from this escalation is the effort to prevent the Gulf region from becoming vulnerable to external threats. Frictions characteristic of hybrid warfare have previously occurred among neighboring Gulf states; therefore, the region is not exempt from hybrid wars in which multiple external actors are involved. In this last case, the withdrawal of UAE forces from Yemen has, to some degree, may contribute to a reduction in tensions within the Gulf. It seems that the UAE doesn’t intend to take risks by confronting Saudi Arabia. It was possible to presume the formation of a strategic agreement similar to the Saudi-Pakistan mutual defence pact, involving India as an alternative balancing measure in the region. Nevertheless, this scenario is not realistic at present, as India does not have sufficient experience to conduct military activities abroad at such a distance.
It should be noted that the STC previously was engaged in a Saudi-led coalition against the Houthis armed group backed by Iran. The absence of active reactions of Houthis to the military campaigns of Yemeni forces somehow has related with the current internal political situations in Iran. The alliance with Iran afforded the Houthis to proclaim their political influence in Yemen. By controlling territories in the north, including the capital, Sanaa, the Houthis armed group recommended itself as one of the key players in Yemeni politics.
Thus, taking into consideration the current geopolitical circumstances, it seems that the existence of a crack among coalition allies serves the interests of the Houthis. At the same time, it makes it necessary to formulate a new policy toward the Saudi-backed Presidential Leadership Council (PLC). Moreover, the Houthis are not excluded from confrontation with Yemeni forces and the Saudi-led coalition. In the near future, this situation may stimulate deeper interactions with external actors, including China and Russia. Due to strained foreign relations, the increasing presence of both of these countries in the region does not match with Washington’s geopolitical interests. The involvement of those countries could have made the situation more complicated.
Through the geopolitical perspective, it is possible to conclude that Russia may be interested in advancing the escalation of the situation in Yemen and, consequently, in the Bab al-Mandeb Strait. It would allow Russia to divert international attention from the war in Ukraine while simultaneously causing disruptions in energy export operations. For Russia, which has periodically used fossil fuels as a diplomatic lever, it would make sense to promote a stagnation or difficulties in the supply of energy resources. Additionally, it is also important not to overlook Moscow’s targets, which are rooted in historical considerations. Despite these considerations, Russia’s initiatives regarding Yemeni politics remain limited compared to the Soviet era.
Eliminating tensions and establishing comprehensive control in Yemen would enable Riyadh to expand its influence over the Red Sea which is located between the Asian and African continents. In this regard, Saudi Arabia’s geopolitical policy corresponds with the objectives of the United States. Ensuring the stability of Bab al-Mandeb Strait is considered a main goal of this campaign, as the strait occupies a pivotal role in international maritime trade. Under a strategy aimed at preventing the diversification of influence within this shipping corridor, the Yemeni city of Aden holds significant geographic importance. From the perspective of Washington, any form of Chinese activity in this area – especially military elements – would disrupt the overall situation and, above all, threaten U.S. interests. Therefore, strategic engagement with Riyadh appears to be critically important.
Against the backdrop of all this, the significant negative repercussions remain to this day, namely the continued suffering of the Yemeni population and the fragmentation of the country.
References
[1] Al Jazeera. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/1/4/saudi-backed-government-forces-retake-multiple-cities-in-southern-yemen Accessed: 04.01.2026Photograph: Anadolu Ajansı
